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win rate

Also called: close rate, deal win rate

The share of closed opportunities that were won, counted over a period on deals that reached a decision. Pooled across all deals it can differ a lot from an average of per-seller rates, so the method has to be stated.

Win rate is the share of decided deals that were won: won deals ÷ deals that reached an outcome in the period. Open deals stay out, because their outcome is not known yet. The one choice that changes the number most is what to do with deals that ended in no decision: the buyer neither chose you nor a competitor. Counting them as losses is usually the honest choice, since the selling time was spent either way; whichever you pick, say it next to the number.

The second choice is how to combine groups. A pooled rate adds up all wins and divides by all decided deals. An averaged rate computes a rate for each seller, quarter or segment and then averages those rates, which gives a group with one deal the same weight as a group with twenty. For planning and forecasting, the pooled rate is the one that matches what the team actually closed.

Win rate is most useful broken down: by segment (which customers you really win), by stage (from proposal to won, which feeds the forecast), and over time. Small numbers swing a lot: in a segment with 8 deals, one more win moves the rate by 12.5 points. Show the counts next to the percentage so nobody reads a 50% built on four deals as a law.

Example

From 2024 to mid-2026 Klasna for Teams talked to 40 companies: 12 won, 18 lost, 10 ended with no decision.

  • No decision counted as a loss: 12 ÷ 40 = 30%.
  • No decision left out: 12 ÷ 30 = 40%. Same history, ten points apart.
Segment
Deals (no decision counted)
Won
Win rate
IT services
8
4
50%
Creative studios
6
3
50%
Professional services
6
2
33.33%
Retail
8
3
37.5%
Logistics, manufacturing, hospitality
12
0
0%

Pooled versus averaged, from proposal to won over four quarters: 3, 5, 1 and 4 deals reached the proposal stage and 2, 1, 1 and 1 were won. Pooled: 5 ÷ 13 = 38.46%. Averaged: (66.67% + 20% + 100% + 25%) ÷ 4 = 52.92%, mostly because a quarter with one deal (100%) counts as much as a quarter with five.

Common mistakes

  • Dropping "no decision" quietly. It can lift the rate by ten points or more; state how you count it.
  • Averaging rates across sellers or quarters. Small groups get the same weight as big ones; use the pooled rate for planning.
  • Counting open deals. Deals still in the pipeline have no outcome yet and pull the rate down or up depending on how you treat them.
  • Reading small samples as facts. One deal moves a rate built on eight deals by 12.5 points; show the counts.
  • Comparing periods with different stage rules. If "qualified" meant something looser last year, the rates are not comparable.

Learn it in the course