Case: the Club survey that asked only members

Before challenging a plan, rebuild its own numbers. Nazar's plan rests on the November survey: 108 of the 220 responding members said they would «definitely» or «probably» buy Club Plus at 650, which is 49.09%.

He then took two steps: scaled 49.09% to all 880 members (432 Plus members) and multiplied by the extra 200 a month (86,400 a month). Each step hides an assumption: that the 220 who replied speak for all 880, and that a stated yes becomes a payment.

The case tests both steps with the evidence Klasna gathered after November.

A survey of current members can't speak for people the offer is meant to attract. Klasna's December wave asked them: 60 people who left the Club in 2026 and 100 families and adults with lesson packages who never joined, with the same four questions.

Members put the acceptable range at 510–700; the 160 others at 310–450. For them today's Club at 450 is already at the top. 139 of 160 (86.88%) gave a «too expensive» price of 650 or less, against 1 of 220 members (0.45%), and only 2 of 160 said they'd buy Plus at 650.

The same price is unremarkable to people who already pay and out of reach for the people Nazar wants to advertise to.

In January everyone surveyed got a real offer: a refundable 200 deposit to hold a place in Club Plus from March, counted toward the first month. The results by segment: members who said yes 18 of 108, members who said maybe or no 4 of 112, members who never replied 9 of 660, lapsed 0 of 60, non-members 1 of 100.

Among the members who said «definitely» or «probably», 18 / 108 = 16.67% paid. Stated yes overstated real commitment about six times, the same pattern as NMT Sprint's ladder. Note too that 9 deposits came from members who never answered the survey at all.

Nazar scaled a stated share (49.09%) to all 880 members. The deposits give a share based on behaviour: 18 + 4 + 9 = 31 members out of 880, 3.52%. In the second wave, 1 deposit out of 160.

That's the number to plan on: about 31 Plus members at launch, mostly existing members upgrading. Some deposits will be refunded and a few people will join without one, so treat it as a first estimate with a small range around it, not an exact count.

Four estimates compete: 432 (49.09% of 880), 108 (everyone who said yes), about 500 (adding new families from ads), and about 31 (members who paid a deposit).

Only the last rests on behaviour with money on the table. 432 and 108 scale stated answers; 500 adds people whose acceptable range ends at 450 and who almost never said yes. So the first estimate is about 31: 31 × 200 = 6,200 a month of extra revenue before refunds, not 86,400.

Even the corrected 6,200 a month is revenue, not what Klasna keeps. Each Plus member takes tutor time: two sessions a month at 450, shared by at most six people, so 2 × 450 / 6 = 150 a month per member in a full group.

After the 2.5% fee, Plus adds at most 200 × 0.975 − 150 = 45 a member over the Club, and less in groups that aren't full. For 31 members that's about 1,395 a month. Plus may still be worth it as a better product for some members, but not as the money-maker Nazar's plan described.

The evidence says Plus at 650 is an upgrade for some existing members, not a way to bring new people in. So the plan: start small with the depositors (31 people is five or six groups), check who renews after the first month, and only then hire more tutors. Don't advertise Plus at 650 to new families: their own answers say no. Attracting them needs a different offer, which is what the next module covers.

How it fits together: rebuild the claim, ask the people the plan depends on, scale paid deposits rather than stated yeses, and judge the result on contribution. The next module asks what exactly Klasna and Dana should sell, starting with what the price grows with.