A twelve-month cash flow forecast

Leo read one number in Hanna's 2027 plan: the year ends with 4.5 million UAH more cash than it starts with. A cash plan (cash flow forecast) is built to answer a different question: will there be enough money in the bank at the end of every month? So it shows cash in, cash out and the closing balance month by month, with the real date of every payment.

The first timing rule is for tutors. They are paid twice a month: the first half of a month on the 20th, the second half on the 5th of the next month. So each month pays half of its own payouts and half of last month's.

January 2027: payouts earned were 3,281,000 UAH in December and 3,270,800 in January.

Paid in January = 3,281,000 ÷ 2 + 3,270,800 ÷ 2 = 1,640,500 + 1,635,400 = 3,275,900 UAH.

The other half of January, 1,635,400, is still owed at the end of January. The slip is to put a month's earned payouts in the same month: that hides the lag that makes June so expensive.

Teams lessons happen every month, but their money comes four times a year. Klasna invoices each school-year quarter on its last day (end of February, May, August and November), and companies pay 60 days later.

So in Klasna's 2027 plan:

• January collects the 640,000 UAH invoiced in November 2026;
• the December–February quarter is invoiced at the end of February: 360 lessons a month × 3 × 800 = 864,000 UAH, paid in April;
• the March–May invoice is paid in July, June–August in October.

A month with no invoice can still collect cash, and a month full of Teams lessons can collect nothing. In the plan this is two separate columns: what was invoiced (not cash) and what was collected (cash).

The typical slip is to book Teams money in the month of the lessons, as if it were a package. That moves cash two to five months too early and makes the spring look even better than it is.

A cash plan is a table with one row per month. For each line you write down when the money actually moves, not when it is earned. Klasna's rules for 2027:

• Packages and Club: families and members pay up front. Cash in the same month, minus the payment provider's 2.5%.
• Tutor payouts: half of a month's payouts on the 20th, the other half on the 5th of the next month. Each month pays half its own and half of last month's.
• Video, AI and Club hosts: billed monthly, paid the month after.
• Salaries, marketing, office: paid in the same month.
• Teams: invoiced on the last day of each school-year quarter, collected 60 days later.

Then, for every month: net cash flow = cash in − cash out, and closing cash = last month's closing cash + net cash flow. Klasna starts 2027 with 250,000 UAH.

Keep invoiced and collected amounts, earned and paid payouts in separate columns. The slip is to mix them: then the plan quietly turns back into a P&L.

When a month looks bad, read its row column by column and ask which money arrives and which leaves.

Klasna's June 2027:

• cash in: packages 1,650,000 + Club 531,000 + Teams 0 = 2,181,000 UAH. Teams invoiced nothing in June and collects nothing until July;
• cash out: fees 54,525 + tutor payouts 3,352,800 + video and AI 457,560 + salaries 796,000 + marketing 160,000 + office 84,000 = 4,904,885 UAH;
• net cash flow: 2,181,000 − 4,904,885 = −2,723,885 UAH.

The biggest item explains the month. June pays 3,352,800 to tutors although June's own lessons earned only 2,204,800: half of May's 4,500,800 falls due on 5 June. The video and AI bill is May's too. So June pays for a busy May with the cash of a quiet June.

The slip is to skip a column: forgetting fees or office makes the outflow look smaller, and taking "payouts earned" instead of "payouts paid" understates June by more than a million.

Follow the closing balance down the year and a shape appears. Spring prepayments lift Klasna's cash to 4,640,535 UAH in April. Then the calendar turns:

• in June families buy few packages (1,650,000 UAH instead of over 5 million), yet June still pays half of May's busy payouts;
• June alone takes 2,723,885 UAH out of the bank;
• July and August keep sliding: 915,930 and then 592,132.50 UAH, the lowest month-end of the year;
• September's new prepayments lift cash back to 2,759,997.50.

This valley is not bad luck. It comes every summer, because the spring money was paid for lessons that are taught and paid out in summer, while new prepayments pause until September.

Reading the plan means finding the minimum of the closing balance column, not only its last row. A year can end at 4.7 million and still have a month where one late payment would hurt. The slip is to look at December's balance or the yearly total and stop there.

Klasna's 2027 plan adds 4,455,267.50 UAH over the year: it starts with 250,000 and ends December at 4,705,267.50. That total is true, and it answers almost nothing about the summer.

A yearly sum adds strong months and weak months together. Spring's surplus and September's prepayments easily outweigh the June–August outflows, so the total looks calm. But money is needed on specific dates: salaries at the end of July, payouts on 5 and 20 August. On those dates the balance is what matters, not the December result.

In the plan, two months end below Hanna's 1,000,000 UAH buffer: July at 915,930 and August at 592,132.50. January (1,224,590) and June (1,347,340) end only just above it.

So when someone says "the year is fine, let's sign", ask for the lowest month and its distance to the buffer. Leo planned to sign new Teams deals on the strength of the total. A cash plan exists precisely to stop that kind of decision.

"It never goes below zero" sounds reassuring, but zero is the point where Klasna stops paying tutors and staff. A plan that only avoids zero has no room for anything going wrong.

So a finance team sets a buffer: a minimum month-end balance it wants to keep. Hanna's is 1,000,000 UAH, about one month of salaries, coordinators and office plus room for a bad week. Then the question for every month is the distance to the buffer.

• Above the buffer: fine.
• Below the buffer but above zero: a cash gap waiting to happen. One late Teams payment or a weaker September and the bills can't be paid on time.
• Below zero: a gap that is already in the plan.

In the 2027 plan, July (915,930) and August (592,132.50) sit in the middle zone. Neither breaks zero; both need action.

The buffer is a choice, not a law. Pick it from the size of your fixed monthly payments and how uncertain the plan is, then hold every month to it.

Once you know the lowest month, put a number on the problem: how much more cash would it need to end at the buffer?

Gap = buffer − lowest month-end balance.

August 2027 ends at 592,132.50 UAH, and Hanna wants 1,000,000:

1,000,000 − 592,132.50 = 407,867.50 UAH.

Now the discussion has a size. Anything that moves at least about 408,000 UAH of cash into the summer, or moves spending out of it, closes the gap:

• earlier prepayments, e.g. an offer for summer packages paid in May;
• a different payment date, such as monthly Teams invoices instead of quarterly ones;
• spending moved to September, such as a marketing push or an annual tool fee.

A lever has to be timed as well as sized: saving 408,000 in December doesn't help August. And new Teams deals starting in spring would deepen the valley, because their invoices are paid two to five months later while tutors are paid within weeks. The slip is to answer the gap with "cut costs" without saying what, how much and in which month.