# Case: where to keep Dana's savings for two years > Short-term savings on a worked case: Dana has 150,000 UAH for a kitchen renovation two years away. Price the goal, compare five options after tax, inflation and the exchange rate, stress-test them and write a recommendation. - Course: [Personal Finance: Budget, Safety Cushion, Debt and Investing](https://productovi.com/courses/personal-finance.md) - Module: Where should savings live? - Lesson 20/32, ~31 min - Source: https://productovi.com/courses/personal-finance/two-year-savings-case ## Short-term savings: a kitchen in two years **Alex Tutor:** Decision day for Dana's kitchen money, and you're still the one helping her. **Dana:** Decision time. My emergency fund is separate and the tax money is set aside. On top of that I have 150,000 for the kitchen. The builders can start in autumn 2028. **Dana:** Today's quote is exactly 150,000, but the foreman says it will follow prices. Labour and materials, all in hryvnias. I'd like the money to keep up, without gambling. **Alex Tutor:** Then we price the goal first. With short-term savings, every option is judged against the goal, not against the others. Here are five options with rates rounded to the late-September 2026 picture, and three scenarios for the next two years. Scenarios, not forecasts. **Dataset (CSV):** [Five places for Dana's 150,000 UAH](https://productovi.com/datasets/personal-finance/two-year-savings-case/dana-savings-options.csv) Illustrative rates rounded to late September 2026. The 12-month deposits are renewed once at the same rate; bonds are held to maturity, about two years. Dollars are bought at 45.20 UAH. - `option`: card_account, deposit_12m_uah, govt_bonds_uah_2y, deposit_12m_usd, govt_bonds_usd_2y - `currency`: Currency of the savings - `gross_rate_pct`: Rate a year before tax, % - `tax_pct`: Tax withheld from interest, % - `net_rate_pct`: Rate a year after tax, % - `guarantee`: deposit_guarantee (the state fund repays) or state_debt_not_fund (owed by the state, not covered by the fund) - `early_access`: any_day, loses_interest (closing early costs interest) or sell_at_market_price **Dataset (CSV):** [Three scenarios for autumn 2026 – autumn 2028](https://productovi.com/datasets/personal-finance/two-year-savings-case/dana-two-year-scenarios.csv) Inflation a year, and the rate at which the bank buys Dana's dollars back in autumn 2028. Not forecasts. - `scenario`: calm, base or rough - `inflation_pct_a_year`: Average inflation a year, % - `usd_rate_2028`: UAH per USD when selling dollars in autumn 2028 **Alex Tutor:** Start with the kitchen. If the quote grows with inflation, what will it cost in two years in the base scenario? > **Exercise:** The kitchen is quoted at 150,000 UAH today, and the quote grows with inflation. In the **base** scenario (8% a year), what will it cost in two years? In UAH. ## Each option against the kitchen **Sofia:** 174,960 in the base case. So the card account, at 0%, is 24,960 short before anything goes wrong. **Dana:** Ouch. The "safe" option loses a sixth of the kitchen. **Dana:** And the deposit? Last week 14% sounded like plenty. **Alex Tutor:** Now the hryvnia deposit: 10.78% after tax, renewed once. Two years of compounding on 150,000. > **Exercise:** 150,000 UAH goes into the 12-month hryvnia deposit (14%, 23% tax on interest), and everything is renewed once at the same rate. How much is there **after two years**? Round to the nearest hryvnia. **Sofia:** 184,083: that covers 174,960 with about 9,100 to spare. And the hryvnia bonds at 16% with no tax: 150,000 × 1.16² = 201,840. **Alex Tutor:** In today's money, base case: the deposit is worth 157,822, the bonds 173,045, the card 128,601. Real rates of about 2.6% and 7.4% a year, and minus 7.4% for the card. ## The dollar route **Dana:** Mum would still say dollars. Let's at least count them. **Sofia:** 150,000 / 45.20 = 3,318.58 dollars. In dollar bonds at 3.5% that grows to 3,554.95; on a dollar deposit at 0.77% after tax, only 3,369.88. **Alex Tutor:** Now sell the dollar bonds back at each scenario's rate: 46, 49 or 56 hryvnias. Compare with the kitchen in that scenario, and with the hryvnia bonds. > **Exercise:** Dana's 3,318.58 USD in dollar bonds grow to 3,554.95 USD and are sold at 46, 49 or 56 UAH. In which scenario does this route end up with **more hryvnias than the hryvnia bonds** (201,840 UAH)? **Sofia:** Calm: 163,528, short of the kitchen. Base: 174,193, still 767 short. Rough: 199,077, enough, but below the hryvnia bonds' 201,840. **Dana:** So the dollar only wins if the hryvnia falls a lot, and even then it's second here. For a hryvnia kitchen. ## Stress test and the small print **Alex Tutor:** Now the rough scenario for the hryvnia options: 12% inflation makes the kitchen 188,160. The deposit's 184,083 is 4,077 short; the bonds' 201,840 leave 13,680. **Dana:** Then why not put everything in bonds and stop thinking? **Alex Tutor:** Because the table hides small print. Bonds must mature before the builders start, an early sale is at the market price, and the deposit fund doesn't cover them. And plans change: you might want the oven sooner, while it's cheaper. > **Exercise:** Dana considers putting the whole 150,000 into hryvnia government bonds. Which risks or conditions **really apply** to that plan? Select all that apply. **Dana:** So with bonds, the date is everything. I'd look for ones that mature in summer 2028, a little before the builders. **Alex Tutor:** A few months of slack is sensible. And whatever may be needed sooner, like the money for appliances, can sit somewhere easier to reach. ## Answering Mum, then the recommendation **Dana:** Mum will ask about the dollars first. I need three sentences for her, with numbers. **Alex Tutor:** Use the base case and the rough one. Mum's real worry is a crisis, so show what happens in one. **Sofia:** And the rough scenario is exactly the crisis she's afraid of. **Alex Tutor:** Right. If even the crisis case doesn't favour dollars here, that's the strongest answer you can give her. > **Exercise:** Dana's mum asks: "Why not change it all into dollars to be safe?" Write Dana's answer in about three sentences, using numbers from the base and rough scenarios. **Dana:** Now the real thing: what would you do with my 150,000, and why? Something I can act on next week. **Alex Tutor:** Numbers first: the goal's price and each option against it. Then the stress test, the currency question and the small print. End with what Dana checks before she signs anything. **Sofia:** A split is allowed? **Alex Tutor:** Any answer is allowed if the numbers hold up and the trade-off is said out loud. It's Dana's money and Dana's call. > **Exercise:** Write Dana a recommendation for her 150,000 UAH. > **Key ideas** > > - Price the goal at the date you'll pay: a 150,000 UAH kitchen growing with 8% inflation costs **174,960** in two years (188,160 at 12%). > - Compare every option with the goal: card 150,000 (short 24,960), deposit **184,083**, hryvnia bonds **201,840**. > - Stress-test: at 12% inflation the deposit is 4,077 short, the bonds still cover the kitchen. > - For a hryvnia goal, dollars are a bet: dollar bonds give 174,193 in the base case (767 short) and 199,077 even in the rough one, still below hryvnia bonds. > - Read the small print: maturity before the payment date, early sale at market price, the fund guarantee (deposits yes, bonds no). Rates date fast: check current terms. This is educational, not personal financial advice. **Alex Tutor:** That's the module: real rates, the currency of the goal, deposits and bonds, and a choice tested against bad years. Next module: investing for the long run, without illusions. - Previous lesson: [Deposits and government bonds](https://productovi.com/courses/personal-finance/deposits-and-bonds.md) - Next lesson: [Risk and return: no "high and safe"](https://productovi.com/courses/personal-finance/risk-and-return.md) --- Productovi Learning. Free, no sign-up needed to read.