# Where is it in its life? > Read an offer's life-cycle stage from the right comparison, not from one bad season: a mature course with a summer dip, a club three months old, and the launch stance (price level and promotion effort) each one calls for. - Course: [Marketing Strategy: Who to Win and How](https://productovi.com/courses/marketing-strategy.md) - Module: What do we offer next, and where do we grow? - Lesson 26/32, ~29 min - Source: https://productovi.com/courses/marketing-strategy/where-is-it-in-its-life ## Leo wants to close programming **Alex Tutor:** Back on Klasna's marketing team, the offer-and-growth row has two test cases today: programming for children and teens, which has run for years, and Klasna Club, the speaking-practice subscription that launched in July. **Leo:** Programming sign-ups halved in June and learners fell by more than half over the summer. Let's close it and put the money into the Club: 480 members three months after launch. **Uliana:** I pulled two school years of programming, October 2024 to September 2026: families who bought their first programming package each month, and learners with at least one lesson that month. **Dataset (CSV):** [Klasna programming, October 2024 – September 2026](https://productovi.com/datasets/marketing-strategy/where-is-it-in-its-life/klasna-programming-2024-2026.csv) One row per month over two school years. - `month`: Month (YYYY-MM) - `new_families`: Families who bought their first programming package that month - `active_learners`: Programming learners with at least one lesson that month **Alex Tutor:** Start with Leo's own comparison: June 2026 against May 2026. How much did new families change? > **Exercise:** By how much did new programming families change from **May to June 2026**? In %, to two decimals (negative for a fall). ## The right comparison **Sofia:** Half the new families gone in one month. That does look like decline. **Alex Tutor:** Every summer looks like that at Klasna. The whole school went from 1,300 active learners in May 2026 to 520 in July. Comparing June with May measures the season, not programming. **Alex Tutor:** Compare each month with the same month a year earlier. The chart puts both school years on one axis. **New programming families by month, two school years** | Month | Oct 2024 – Sep 2025 | Oct 2025 – Sep 2026 | | --- | --- | --- | | Oct | 6 | 6 | | Nov | 5 | 5 | | Dec | 5 | 4 | | Jan | 5 | 6 | | Feb | 7 | 7 | | Mar | 6 | 7 | | Apr | 7 | 6 | | May | 6 | 6 | | Jun | 3 | 3 | | Jul | 2 | 2 | | Aug | 2 | 2 | | Sep | 10 | 12 | *Both years dip in June–August and jump in September. The two lines almost lie on top of each other.* **Uliana:** A year ago it was the same: 6 new families in May, 3 in June. And June to August brought 7 families in both summers. **Alex Tutor:** Now check Leo's second number the same way. Learners fell from 104 in May to 46 in August; compare August with August. > **Exercise:** Programming learners at the end of **August 2026** against **August 2025**: what is the year-over-year change? In %, to two decimals. **Alex Tutor:** One more tool for the season: how strong is September compared with an average month? > **Exercise:** Programming brought **66** new families from October 2025 to September 2026, and **12** of them in September 2026. What is September's seasonal index (the month divided by the year's monthly average)? To two decimals. ## Reading the stage **Alex Tutor:** Use the stages as questions to ask, not as a timetable every offer must follow. A new offer has little history to read. A growing one adds clearly more than last year. A mature one stays close to last year. One in decline falls below last year, season after season. **Alex Tutor:** With a course this small, one or two families swing a single month. Take twelve months against the twelve before. > **Exercise:** New programming families: **64** from October 2024 to September 2025 and **66** from October 2025 to September 2026. What is the year-over-year change? In %, to two decimals. **Sofia:** 64 new families, then 66. Learner-months 866, then 885. It's flat. **Alex Tutor:** Flat, with the same seasonal shape both years. Two years is short, so say how sure you are. But nothing here falls below last year. > **Exercise:** From the programming data, which reading of its life-cycle stage is best supported? **Uliana:** Leo will say flat means it's dying anyway. **Alex Tutor:** Flat isn't falling. A mature offer can earn steady contribution for years; the finance course showed programming leaves over a million hryvnias of contribution a year. The questions for it are different: how to keep its families, how to raise what each lesson leaves, and where the next growth comes from. ## And the Club? **Uliana:** And the Club Leo wants to move the money into? 150 people joined in July, 180 in August and 260 in September: 480 members at the end of September, 110 cancellations so far. **Alex Tutor:** The Club launched in July, so there is no same month a year earlier to compare with. Three months only tell you it is new and taking off. Read it from who stays: 110 of 590 joiners have already left, and in module 4 most July joiners who skipped the live clubs were gone within three months. **Alex Tutor:** So how would you read the Club after three months? > **Exercise:** Klasna Club launched in July 2026: 590 joiners by the end of September, 110 cancellations, 480 members. Which reading fits best? ## Launch stance: price and push **Leo:** Fine, programming stays. Then next year let's push the Club hard and make it cheaper. **Alex Tutor:** That's a launch stance: a price level combined with a promotion effort. A modest price with a strong push aims to grow fast. A higher price with a quiet launch to a few customers aims to learn and earn before scaling. **Alex Tutor:** The stage tells you which fits. Adults are joining the Club without much push, but almost one in five has already left: a cut price would mostly discount people who'd join anyway and wouldn't fix why people leave. Fix the first month (module 4), then push. Programming is mature: keep it and work on contribution, not on a big push. A brand-new offer, like the monthly mock exam, is unproven: launch it quietly to a few spring families first. **Sofia:** And what price do we put on the mock exam? **Alex Tutor:** Not here. Willingness to pay, the price floor and ceiling, and how to show a price or a discount honestly belong to the Pricing course. For the plan row, write the stance and the reason; the Club stays at 450 a month until that work says otherwise. > **Exercise:** Which launch stance fits the new monthly mock exam best? **Alex Tutor:** Now put each offer next to the stance its stage calls for. > **Exercise:** Match each offer to the stance its stage calls for. **Uliana:** Leo will want two sentences, not a lecture on seasons. **Alex Tutor:** Then give him the comparison he can't argue with: the same months, a year apart. Add what you'd watch to change your mind, and one line on the Club. > **Exercise:** Leo wants to close programming because sign-ups halved in June, and move the money into Klasna Club (launched in July 2026: 590 joiners, 110 cancellations, 480 members). Reply to Leo (3–4 sentences): what stage programming is in, the numbers that show it, your recommendation, what would change your mind, and one line on the Club. > **Key ideas** > > - A month-over-month fall in a seasonal business usually measures the season. Compare the same month a year earlier, or whole seasons. > - Read the stage from year-over-year changes and twelve-month totals, and say how sure you are. Small numbers swing month to month. > - Programming: new families 64 → 66 (+3.13%), August learners 45 → 46, the same summer dip both years: a mature offer, not a declining one. Keep it and work on contribution. > - An offer three months old, like the Club, has no year to compare with: read it from sign-ups and from who stays. > - A seasonal index (a month divided by the year's monthly average) must average 1 across the year. > - A launch stance pairs a price level with a promotion effort. A price cut rarely fixes why people leave; an unproven offer launches quietly first. Prices themselves are set with the Pricing course's tools. **Alex Tutor:** Next lesson: programming and the Club are two offers among several. We'll give each offer a role in the range and check what a new one does to the others. - Previous lesson: [The offer in layers](https://productovi.com/courses/marketing-strategy/the-offer-in-layers.md) - Next lesson: [Roles in a range](https://productovi.com/courses/marketing-strategy/roles-in-a-range.md) --- Productovi Learning. Free, no sign-up needed to read.