# The monthly control loop

> Compare results with the plan every month, find the cause of a gap, and decide (keep, fix the ad, move budget or re-forecast) with scale and stop rules agreed in advance; use AI to draft the review with checks; and see a one-person practice run the same loop.

- Course: [Marketing Strategy: Who to Win and How](https://productovi.com/courses/marketing-strategy.md)
- Module: Did it work, and what's the plan?
- Lesson 31/32, ~27 min
- Source: https://productovi.com/courses/marketing-strategy/the-monthly-control-loop

## Three weeks into October

**Alex Tutor:** At Klasna's marketing team, you can measure now. The plan's last row also needs a habit: a short review every month, with rules decided before the numbers arrive.

**Alex Tutor:** Before the numbers, the shape of the loop itself.

> **Exercise:** Put the steps of Klasna's monthly control loop in order.

**Uliana:** Here's 1–21 October against the plan for those three weeks. Spend is on plan. Paying families aren't.

> **October 2026, days 1–21: plan vs actual**
>
> | Channel | Spend: plan / actual, UAH | Paying families: plan / actual |
> |---|---|---|
> | Paid social | 82,000 / 85,000 | 27 / 14 |
> | Search | 55,000 / 54,000 | 20 / 22 |
> | School partnerships | 20,000 / 20,000 | 10 / 11 |
>
> Scale and stop rules agreed in September: scale a channel by a quarter when its cost per paying family stays under 4,000 UAH for four weeks; cut it to the test level when it stays over 6,000 for three weeks.

**Alex Tutor:** Step one of the loop: compare. Work out what a paying family has cost in paid social so far.

> **Exercise:** Paid social has spent 85,000 UAH in October so far and brought 14 paying families. What is its **cost per paying family**? In UAH, to two decimals.

## Find the cause, then act

**Sofia:** Paid social is over 6,000 and it has been for three weeks. The rule says cut it to the test level.

**Alex Tutor:** Yes, and that's why the rule was written in September: nobody has to argue about it now. But step two is the cause. A cut without a cause just moves the problem.

**Uliana:** I checked the enquiries. On 2 October we switched to a new video, and since then only 40% of enquiries come from parents, against 70% before. The rest are teens.

**Alex Tutor:** There's the cause: the ad reaches the user, not the payer, and Klasna never aims ads at minors anyway. Step three is the decision, and there are only four: keep, fix the ad, move budget, or re-forecast.

> **Exercise:** Paid social has cost over 6,000 UAH per paying family for three weeks (plan: about 3,000). On 2 October it switched to a new video, and since then only 40% of its enquiries come from parents, against 70% before; the rest are teens. What should the October review decide for paid social?

**Uliana:** And when is re-forecasting right?

**Alex Tutor:** When the plan's numbers were wrong, not the work. If October's targets were copied from spring conversion rates, every channel misses, and the fix is a new forecast for next month built on autumn rates.

> **Exercise:** Match each finding from a monthly review to the right response.

**Alex Tutor:** One more check on the rules' time windows.

> **Exercise:** Klasna's rule: scale a channel by a quarter when its cost per paying family stays under 4,000 UAH for four weeks. Search had one week at 2,000 per family, so the rule says to scale it now.

## AI in the loop, with checks

**Sofia:** What does the review look like on paper?

**Alex Tutor:** One line per channel: plan, actual, cost per paying family, the rule it triggers, the cause and the decision with one owner. Half an hour in the first week of the month.

**Uliana:** Could an AI tool write this review for me every month?

**Alex Tutor:** It can draft it: summarise the export, flag channels that crossed a rule, suggest causes to check. A person then ties every number back to the source and signs the decisions. Its suggestions are hypotheses, and no customer data goes in without a lawful basis.

> **Exercise:** Which uses of an AI tool in the monthly review are sound? Select all that apply.

## Dana's practice: her monthly check

**Alex Tutor:** The same loop works for one person. Dana, the Klasna English tutor with her own practice for adults, planned three hours a week of marketing for November, twelve hours, mostly talks and referrals. Her rules, written in October: if two talks bring no student, switch community; when the three free places fill, stop outreach.

**Dana:** Six hours went on two talks: two enquiries. Two hours on asking my students and friends: one enquiry. And I slipped back into posting: four hours, nothing. All three people booked an intro call for December.

**Alex Tutor:** Compare with the plan per hour, then what happened next. Talks and referrals are on plan; the gap is the posting, and its cause is habit, not the channel. One month is a small sample, so decide on the split, not the whole approach: keep the talks and move the posting hours back to them.

> **Exercise:** In November, talks and referrals took 8 hours and brought 3 enquiries; posts took 4 hours and brought none. How many **hours per enquiry** did talks and referrals take? To two decimals.

**Alex Tutor:** And the referrals come from your own students and friends. Your contract rule still holds: you never approach Klasna's families or learners.

**Dana:** And if all three start in December, my places are full, and my rule says stop outreach. I'm writing that down now, before December's numbers can talk me out of it.

**Alex Tutor:** Check that rule against your November numbers.

> **Exercise:** All three of Dana's November enquiries booked intro calls for December. If all three start, her three free places are full. Her rules, written in October: if two talks bring no student, switch community; when the three free places fill, stop outreach. What do her rules tell her to do?

> **Exercise:** Klasna's rules agreed in September: scale a channel by a quarter when its cost per paying family stays under 4,000 UAH for four weeks; cut it to the test level when it stays over 6,000 for three weeks. Write the review part of Klasna's plan row (3–4 sentences): when the review happens, who owns it, one scale rule and one stop rule, and how AI is used.

> **Key ideas**
>
> - A monthly control loop has three steps: compare results with the plan, find the cause of any gap, then decide: keep, fix the ad, move budget, or re-forecast if the plan's numbers were wrong.
> - Write scale and stop rules before the month starts, so decisions don't depend on mood or on who argues loudest.
> - Judge channels on cost per paying family, not on views; a single week is usually noise.
> - AI can draft the review and flag rule breaks; a person checks every number and signs decisions, and personal data stays out without a lawful basis.
> - A one-person business runs the same loop with hours as the budget: compare results per hour and change the split, not everything at once.

**Alex Tutor:** Back to Klasna for the final case: all eight rows on one page, the plan for 2027.

- Previous lesson: [What would have happened anyway](https://productovi.com/courses/marketing-strategy/what-would-have-happened-anyway.md)
- Next lesson: [Case: Klasna's marketing plan for 2027](https://productovi.com/courses/marketing-strategy/marketing-plan-for-2027-case.md)

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