# Case: Klasna's lead segment for 2027 > Score Klasna's four consumer segments on a year of monthly data and the customer export, with the weights and directions written down, find what one reversed criterion does to the ranking, and write the plan's first-target row. - Course: [Marketing Strategy: Who to Win and How](https://productovi.com/courses/marketing-strategy.md) - Module: Whom do we serve first? - Lesson 12/32, ~37 min - Source: https://productovi.com/courses/marketing-strategy/lead-segment-for-2027-case ## The question **Alex Tutor:** You're back on Klasna's marketing team, and the plan for 2027 needs its first-target row. Today you choose the lead segment with real numbers. **Uliana:** Leo wants the lead segment by Friday. My draft says exam families: they're the biggest. But after last lesson I don't trust my own sheet. **Sofia:** What do we have to score them on? **Alex Tutor:** A year by segment and month, September 2025 to August 2026: learners, lessons, contribution, marketing, enquiries and new families. The four segments add up exactly to the company's monthly totals. **Dataset (CSV):** [Klasna by segment and month, Sep 2025 – Aug 2026](https://productovi.com/datasets/marketing-strategy/lead-segment-for-2027-case/klasna-segments-by-month-2025-2026.csv) Klasna's consumer side, 48 rows: 12 months × 4 segments. Contribution is what families paid for the month's lessons minus tutor payouts, payment fees and video and AI costs. Marketing is the spend on campaigns aimed at the segment. Money in UAH. - `month`: Month (YYYY-MM) - `segment`: exam_prep (exam-prep families), younger (younger learners' families), adults (adults paying for themselves), diaspora (families in the EU) - `active_learners`: Learners with at least one lesson that month - `lessons`: Lessons delivered - `contribution_uah`: Contribution, UAH - `marketing_uah`: Marketing spend aimed at the segment, UAH - `enquiries`: Enquiries received - `new_families`: New families (first package bought) > **The scoring sheet (written before scoring)** > > | Criterion | Weight | Good | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | > |---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---| > | Contribution in the year, UAH | 25% | higher | < 1.5 M | 1.5–2 M | 2–3 M | 3–5 M | ≥ 5 M | > | Peak share: lessons in Feb–May, % of the year | 15% | lower | > 50 | 45–50 | 40–45 | 36–40 | ≤ 36 | > | Still active in Sep 2026 (export), % | 15% | higher | < 35 | 35–45 | 45–55 | 55–65 | ≥ 65 | > | Win rate: new families / enquiries, % | 15% | higher | < 18 | 18–25 | 25–32 | 32–40 | ≥ 40 | > | Cost per new family: marketing / new families, UAH | 10% | lower | > 5,000 | 4,000–5,000 | 3,000–4,000 | 2,000–3,000 | ≤ 2,000 | > | Contested: named a paid alternative (export), % | 20% | lower | > 65 | 55–65 | 45–55 | 35–45 | ≤ 35 | > > A value exactly on a bound takes the better score. **Alex Tutor:** The sheet is fixed before anyone looks at a segment: six criteria, a weight and a direction for each, bands for the points. Start where Uliana started: how big is the biggest? > **Exercise:** What share of the year's total contribution came from **exam_prep**? In %, to one decimal. ## Reading the year **Sofia:** Exam prep also has the steepest spring. Its lessons from February to May are 22,176 of 40,855 for the year: 54.28%. **Alex Tutor:** Above 50%, so 1 point on peak share. Half the year's work in four months means extra coordinators in spring and idle tutors in July. **Alex Tutor:** Check that peak share yourself. > **Exercise:** Exam prep delivered 22,176 of its 40,855 lessons for the year in February–May. What is its peak share? In %, to two decimals. **Uliana:** But they convert. 435 new families from 1,207 enquiries is 36%: the teacher sends them to us already convinced. **Alex Tutor:** Fair: 4 points on win rate. Now cost per new family: spend for the year divided by new families. Do it for the families in the EU. > **Exercise:** For **diaspora**, what was the marketing spend per new family over the year? In UAH, to two decimals. ## Scoring all four **Alex Tutor:** Two criteria come from the October customer export of 160 accounts: who was still studying in September 2026, and who named a paid alternative when asked "what else did you consider?". > **From the customer export (160 accounts)** > > | Segment | Accounts | Still active in Sep 2026 | Named a paid alternative | > |---|---|---|---| > | exam_prep | 64 | 24 (37.5%) | 38 (59.38%) | > | younger | 54 | 37 (68.52%) | 21 (38.89%) | > | adults | 16 | 8 (50%) | 5 (31.25%) | > | diaspora | 26 | 18 (69.23%) | 10 (38.46%) | > > Paid alternatives: a school teacher's paid lessons, a private tutor, a local centre, a large online school. **Sofia:** Exam prep's points: 5 on contribution, 1 on peak share, 2 on still active, 4 on win rate, 3 on cost, 2 on contested. That's 3.00. **Alex Tutor:** Now the families in the EU. Their contribution is 1,663,799.19, peak share 34.54%, win rate 94 / 332 = 28.31%. **Uliana:** Small, but steady, loyal and cheap to win. I want to see the number. > **Exercise:** What is **diaspora**'s weighted score on the scoring sheet? To two decimals. ## Uliana's draft **Uliana:** My draft had the same six criteria. Except on contested I gave more points to more rivals: "proven demand". **Sofia:** So every segment's contested points turn around: 2 becomes 4, 4 becomes 2, 5 becomes 1. **Alex Tutor:** Score it and see which segment your draft would have put on the plan. Then remember that demand was already counted under contribution. **Uliana:** I have a feeling I know. > **Exercise:** On Uliana's draft, with "contested" scored the wrong way (6 minus the correct points), which segment ranks **first**? **Alex Tutor:** Leo will ask what happens to exam families. What's the honest answer? > **Exercise:** Diaspora families become the lead segment for 2027. What happens to exam-prep families, 57.8% of contribution? **Alex Tutor:** Last, how sure are we? Pick the line that belongs in the memo. > **Exercise:** Which sentence about confidence belongs in the memo to Leo? ## What goes to Leo **Leo:** I saw the draft numbers. Exam families bring 58% of our contribution. Why on earth wouldn't we lead with them? **Sofia:** Because size is one line out of six, and on most of the others they score low. **Alex Tutor:** Say it in his terms. Leading isn't leaving: exam families still come through teachers. And be honest that younger families are close behind. **Leo:** Three sentences. I'm between calls. > **Exercise:** On the scoring sheet exam prep (57.8% of contribution) scores 3.00, against diaspora 3.65, younger 3.40 and adults 3.05, and 42.19% of exam accounts first heard of Klasna from a school teacher. Reply to Leo, the CEO, in 2–4 sentences: why the biggest segment, at 58% of contribution, is not the lead segment for 2027, and what happens to it. **Uliana:** Now the real thing: the memo for Leo and the first-target row for the plan. I'll put it next to my draft so we can all see what changed. **Sofia:** Scores, the lead segment, the draft's mistake, how sure we are, and the row? **Alex Tutor:** Yes. And remember two things the numbers can't say: the export has only 26 accounts in the EU, and their money comes in euros. **Uliana:** Keep it to one page. Leo reads the first paragraph and the row. > **Exercise:** Write Uliana a memo: Klasna's lead segment for 2027, with the plan's first-target row. > **Key ideas** > > - Fix the sheet before looking at the segments: criteria, weights, directions and bands. > - The biggest segment can rank last: exam prep is 57.8% of contribution but scores 3.00, against 3.65 for families in the EU. > - Seasonality, retention, win rate, cost per new family and competition each tell you something size can't. > - One criterion scored the wrong way flipped the ranking: contested reversed put exam prep first. > - Say how sure you are: close scores, small export samples, what the sheet leaves out. > - Not leading with a segment isn't leaving it: write how each segment is still served on the plan row. **Alex Tutor:** Next module: once you know whom you're for, why should they choose Klasna over their alternatives? - Previous lesson: [A niche the hours can fill](https://productovi.com/courses/marketing-strategy/a-niche-the-hours-can-fill.md) - Next lesson: [Which shelf in the customer's head](https://productovi.com/courses/marketing-strategy/which-shelf-in-the-customers-head.md) --- Productovi Learning. 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