# From activity to profit > Turn a dashboard of activity into a chain from spend to contribution: leading and lagging metrics, a target worked backwards from the goal, one owner per metric, and how metrics get gamed. - Course: [Marketing Strategy: Who to Win and How](https://productovi.com/courses/marketing-strategy.md) - Module: Did it work, and what's the plan? - Lesson 29/32, ~25 min - Source: https://productovi.com/courses/marketing-strategy/from-activity-to-profit ## A dashboard full of activity **Alex Tutor:** You're still on Klasna's marketing team, and the plan for 2027 has seven rows. The last one decides how you'll know any of it worked: metrics and review. **Uliana:** Here's my September report: 24 posts, 1.2 million ad views, 900 new followers, 600 enquiries. Looks busy, right? **Hanna:** Busy, yes. But what did it return? None of those numbers is money. **Alex Tutor:** Both are right. Posts and views are **activity**: what the team did. Then come **leading** metrics that move early and point at the result, and **lagging** metrics that show the result itself, later. **Uliana:** So the 900 followers don't count? **Alex Tutor:** They count as activity. Whether any of them ever pays shows up further down the chain, or doesn't. **Alex Tutor:** Put them in one chain, from what you spend to what Klasna keeps. Every link should be something you can count. > **Exercise:** Put Klasna's chain in order, from activity to profit. ## Targets from the goal backwards **Uliana:** For February 2027 the plan spends 300,000: 150,000 on paid social, 90,000 on search, 60,000 on school partnerships. Last spring's tests suggest about 110 new families at those levels. **Alex Tutor:** Then work the leading targets backwards. Assume, and write down as assumptions, that 55% of trial lessons turn into paying families and half of enquiries book a trial. **Sofia:** Where would the 55% and the 50% come from? **Alex Tutor:** From last spring's records if you have them. If not, they're a guess, and you replace them with real figures in the first two weeks of February. > **Exercise:** Goal: 110 new paying families in February 2027. Assumptions: 55% of trial lessons become paying families; 50% of enquiries book a trial. How many **enquiries** does February need? **Hanna:** And the lagging goal in money: a family that starts in February is worth about 6,200 of contribution: 5,600 by the end of May, plus its chance of coming back in September. That's 682,000 if we hit 110. **Alex Tutor:** Put Hanna's figure in one line: what's the lagging goal in money? > **Exercise:** A family that starts in February 2027 is worth about **6,200 UAH** of contribution. The February goal is **110** new paying families. What is the lagging goal in money? In UAH. **Alex Tutor:** Good as a target. Just don't call all of it marketing's return yet: some of those families would have come anyway. That's the next lesson. > **Exercise:** Match each metric to its type. ## One owner, and how metrics get gamed **Alex Tutor:** Every metric in the plan gets one owner: the person who acts when it slips. Uliana owns enquiries from the target segments, the academic lead owns trial-to-paid, Hanna owns contribution. **Hanna:** And who owns the chain as a whole? **Alex Tutor:** Uliana owns the plan. Each link still has one name next to it, so when trials drop in week two, nobody has to ask whose job it is. **Alex Tutor:** Try it: trial-to-paid slips in week two. Who moves first? > **Exercise:** In the second week of February 2027, trial-to-paid falls from the assumed 55% to 40%. Whose job is it to act first? **Uliana:** Ostap, our ads freelancer, wants a bonus per enquiry. Fair? **Alex Tutor:** Pay per enquiry and you'll get enquiries: cheap, plentiful and from people who never pay. Any single number can be gamed. Pair it with one it can't fake, like paying families from those enquiries. **Sofia:** And trial-to-paid could be gamed too, by pressuring families on the trial. **Alex Tutor:** Exactly. So pair it with second packages and refunds. A family pushed into buying rarely buys again. > **Exercise:** Ostap, Klasna's ads freelancer, is paid a bonus per enquiry. What is the best fix? > **Exercise:** Which of these make good **leading** metrics for Klasna's spring plan? Select all that apply. **Alex Tutor:** One last check on trial-to-paid as a bonus metric. > **Exercise:** A bonus based on trial-to-paid alone is safe from gaming, because it's close to money. > **Exercise:** February 2027 numbers: goal 110 new paying families, worth about 6,200 UAH of contribution each (682,000 in all), from 300,000 UAH of spend; assumed 55% of trials become paying families and 50% of enquiries book a trial (400 enquiries, 200 trials); Uliana owns enquiries, the academic lead trial-to-paid, Hanna contribution. Draft the metrics part of the plan row for spring 2027 (3–4 sentences): one leading and one lagging metric with targets, an owner for each, and one guard against gaming. > **Key ideas** > > - Separate activity (posts, views, spend) from leading metrics (enquiries and trials from the target segments) and lagging ones (paying families, second packages, contribution). > - Build one chain from spend to contribution and work targets backwards from the goal: 110 families at 55% and 50% need 200 trials and 400 enquiries. > - Write conversion rates down as assumptions and replace them with real figures as the month runs. > - Give every metric exactly one owner, who acts when it slips. > - Any single number can be gamed. Pair it with one that is hard to fake, and pay for results rather than activity. **Alex Tutor:** Next lesson: the September restart campaign. The team says it brought 410 families. We'll find out how many it really added. - Previous lesson: [Case: four ways to grow in 2027](https://productovi.com/courses/marketing-strategy/four-ways-to-grow-case.md) - Next lesson: [What would have happened anyway](https://productovi.com/courses/marketing-strategy/what-would-have-happened-anyway.md) --- Productovi Learning. Free, no sign-up needed to read.