# A budget from the goal backwards > Work a marketing budget back from the families you need, run it through sanity checks against history, contribution and the monthly line, and do the same for Dana in hours. - Course: [Marketing Strategy: Who to Win and How](https://productovi.com/courses/marketing-strategy.md) - Module: What do we say, where, and with what budget? - Lesson 23/32, ~27 min - Source: https://productovi.com/courses/marketing-strategy/a-budget-from-the-goal-backwards ## Last year plus ten percent **Alex Tutor:** You're still on Klasna's marketing team. Media options are priced; now the restart campaign needs a number. Leo has one ready. **Leo:** This September's plan had 220,000 for marketing. Take that plus ten percent and let's move on. **Alex Tutor:** That budget repeats last year whatever we're trying to achieve. Start from the goal instead: how many new families do we need, and what does it take to get them? Then the money falls out of the arithmetic, and so does what to change if it's too much. **Alex Tutor:** Before any arithmetic: why not just Leo's number? > **Exercise:** Leo proposes this September's 220,000 plus ten percent for the restart. What is the main problem with that budget? **Uliana:** Goal: 90 new families who keep their first package. New ones: families coming back from spring aren't in it. From April, about 90% keep the package; last September 20% of enquiries bought one, and 0.25% of useful contacts sent an enquiry. **Alex Tutor:** And the last lesson gave the price: B, C and E together at 0.82 per useful contact. Walk backwards from the families, one step at a time. > **Working backwards** > > | Step | Rate | Needed | > |---|---|---| > | New families who keep the first package | goal | 90 | > | First packages paid | 90% keep it | 90 / 0.9 = 100 | > | Enquiries | 20% buy | 100 / 0.2 = 500 | > | Useful contacts | 0.25% enquire | ? | > | Media budget | 0.82 UAH per useful contact | ? | > **Exercise:** How many **useful contacts** does the campaign need to bring 500 enquiries at 0.25%? **Sofia:** Two hundred thousand parents reached. Now the money. > **Exercise:** The campaign needs 200,000 useful contacts. What **media budget** does that give at 0.82 UAH per useful contact? In UAH. ## Sanity checks **Alex Tutor:** First check: what does one family cost? 164,000 / 90 = 1,822.22. In April the paid channels averaged 2,727.27 per new family, and October 2025 cost 4,000. A plan much cheaper than anything we have done needs a reason. **Alex Tutor:** Run the first check yourself. > **Exercise:** The first budget is 164,000 UAH for 90 new families who keep their first package. What does one family cost? In UAH, to two decimals. **Sofia:** The 0.25%. Last September's enquiries include spring families who came back anyway. **Uliana:** About a third of them, by my count. **Alex Tutor:** Then for new families the rate is two thirds of 0.25%: about 0.1667%. Those returning families come back through emails to parents who opted in, not through paid media, so they don't belong in this funnel. > **Exercise:** The campaign needs 500 enquiries, and media costs 0.82 UAH per useful contact. Redo the budget with the **new-families-only** rate (0.25% × 2/3, because about a third of last September's enquiries were returning families). What media budget do you get? In UAH. **Hanna:** And does 2,733 per family pay back? **Alex Tutor:** Not on the first package: it leaves 1,710. It pays back only if many families buy a second one, as 47% of April's search families did. Write that dependence into the plan; it's what the review will check. **Alex Tutor:** Hanna's question in one choice: does it pay back? > **Exercise:** The corrected plan costs 2,733.33 UAH per kept family. A first package leaves 1,710 of contribution and a second one 2,952. What should the plan say about payback? **Uliana:** Last check: September also carries search at 90,000, and I want 18,000 to test the school chats. **Alex Tutor:** That makes 354,000 in one month, more than any month in Hanna's forecast. Start the campaign in the last ten days of August, or trim the goal. The test keeps its own small line and a stop rule, so it can fail without sinking the plan. > **Exercise:** Which sanity checks belong on a goal-based budget? Select all that apply. ## Dana's three hours **Alex Tutor:** Now Dana's practice, where the same method runs on hours. She keeps three hours a week for marketing, 24 hours to the end of December, and has room for three more students. **Dana:** Goal: fill all three places. Asking my students and friends once might bring one more; the talks would have to bring two. **Alex Tutor:** From your log, a talk cost 5 hours per student who stayed, and asking for introductions took 2 hours. Work it backwards. > **Exercise:** How many hours does Dana's goal need: two students from talks at 5 hours each, plus 2 hours for asking her students and friends? **Dana:** So I have 12 hours spare. Should I fill them with more channels? **Alex Tutor:** No. When the goal costs less than the budget, don't spend the budget. Book talks with two new communities, stop outreach when the slots fill, and keep the spare hours for teaching. > **Exercise:** Leo still wants "220,000 plus 10%". Write him 3–4 sentences on the restart budget you propose and why, with numbers. The goal-based plan: 90 new families who keep their first package → 100 first packages → 500 enquiries → 300,000 useful contacts at 0.82 UAH = 246,000 UAH, or 2,733.33 per family (April: 2,727.27). A first package leaves 1,710 of contribution, a second one 2,952. With always-on search (90,000) and an 18,000 school-chat test, September would total 354,000. > **Key ideas** > > - A goal-based budget starts from the customers you need and works back: kept customers, purchases, enquiries, useful contacts, money. > - Here: 90 families → 100 first packages → 500 enquiries → 300,000 useful contacts → 246,000 UAH. > - Sanity-check every budget: cost per customer against history, rates cleaned of customers who return anyway, payback against contribution, the total against the monthly line. > - Keep tests on their own small line with a stop rule; keep always-on spend separate from the campaign. > - For a solo practice the same method runs in hours, and when the goal costs less than the budget, don't spend the rest. **Alex Tutor:** Next lesson is the case: the whole September restart plan, calendar, messages, budget and the honest-offer rules. - Previous lesson: [Cost per useful contact, not reach](https://productovi.com/courses/marketing-strategy/cost-per-useful-contact.md) - Next lesson: [Case: the September restart plan](https://productovi.com/courses/marketing-strategy/september-restart-plan-case.md) --- Productovi Learning. Free, no sign-up needed to read.