# The currency of your goals and the safe part at home > A hryvnia goal vs a dollar world fund under devaluation scenarios, and keeping the safe part in the currency you will spend. - Course: [Long-Term Investing: Index Funds, Risk and Your Own Behavior](https://productovi.com/courses/long-term-investing.md) - Module: Launching for Ukraine, and the long run - Lesson 29/32, ~26 min - Source: https://productovi.com/courses/long-term-investing/currency-of-goals ## Ethan's dollar default **Alex Tutor:** October at Zapas: a month to the public launch, and the team turns to its home market. As the PM you're now designing onboarding for users in Ukraine. **Ethan:** Easy one. Ukrainians trust dollars. Our world fund is in dollars. So the default for every goal is the world fund. Done. **Grace:** Take a real goal from the beta. A user has 400,000 UAH and needs 500,000 UAH in three years, for a car. The money will be spent in hryvnias. **Sofia:** So the goal is measured in hryvnias, whatever the money sits in. **Grace:** Exactly. Let's compare three homes for it: a hryvnia deposit, dollars in cash, and the dollar world fund. Round, made-up rates: 40 UAH per dollar today, a deposit at 12% a year, taxes ignored for now. > **Exercise:** 400,000 UAH sits on a hryvnia deposit at **12% a year**, compounded yearly, for **3 years** (taxes ignored). What is it worth at the end, in UAH? Round to whole hryvnias. ## Ten scenarios in hryvnias **Grace:** Now the dollar options. 400,000 UAH buys 10,000 dol. We don't know the rate in three years, so we try three: the hryvnia holds, loses 5% a year, or loses 10% a year against the dollar. **Grace:** And the fund gets two stories: a normal stretch, +19.1% over three years, or a crash just before the goal, −30%. That's ten scenarios, all counted in hryvnias. **Dataset (CSV):** [A 500,000 UAH goal in 3 years from 400,000 UAH, ten scenarios (illustrative)](https://productovi.com/datasets/long-term-investing/currency-of-goals/fx_scenarios.csv) Options: UAH deposit at 12%, USD cash, USD world fund (normal +19.1% or crash −30% over 3 years); hryvnia losing 0, 5 or 10% a year; 40 UAH per dollar today. Value in UAH at the end. **What 400,000 UAH becomes in 3 years, in UAH, by hryvnia devaluation (illustrative)** | Hryvnia loses per year vs the dollar, % | UAH deposit, 12% | USD cash | USD world fund, normal | USD world fund, crash before the goal | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 0 | 561971 | 400000 | 476400 | 280000 | | 5 | 561971 | 463100 | 551552 | 324170 | | 10 | 561971 | 532400 | 634088 | 372680 | *Goal line: 500,000 UAH. The deposit is the same in every column (561,971).* > **Exercise:** The user buys 10,000 dol. of the world fund at 40 UAH per dollar. Over 3 years the fund gains **19.1%** and the hryvnia **holds** at 40. What is the investment worth in UAH at the goal date? **Sofia:** And if the market crashes right before the car? **Grace:** Then devaluation can't save it. With −30% in dollars and the hryvnia losing 10% a year, the best case of the crash row is still 127,320 short. > **Exercise:** The user buys 10,000 dol. of the world fund at 40 UAH per dollar. Over 3 years the fund falls **30%** in dollars, and the hryvnia loses **10% a year** against the dollar (40 → 40 × 1.10³ = 53.24 UAH). What is the investment worth in UAH at the goal date? **Ethan:** But the hryvnia has weakened for years. Isn't that the likely case? **Grace:** Maybe. Then you're betting the car on two forecasts at once: the exchange rate and the stock market, both over three years. Neither of us would sign that. > **Exercise:** **True or false:** if the hryvnia keeps losing value against the dollar, a dollar world fund will always reach a hryvnia goal three years away. ## The safe part at home ![Money for the next five years stays in the currency you will spend, for example a UAH deposit or UAH government bonds; money for 5+ years can sit in a global fund.](https://productovi.com/courses/long-term-investing/diagrams/m8-l1-goal-currency.png) **Ethan:** So for short goals we send people to a bank? We're an investing app! **Grace:** We're an honest one. Short goals in the spending currency, long goals in the world fund. The rules we have on file are from this month, and legal will check them again right before launch. **Grace:** As of then: deposit interest was taxed at 23%, withheld by the bank. Government bonds bought by individuals paid no income tax or military levy. Bonds came in hryvnias, dollars and euros. > **Exercise:** A hryvnia deposit at 12% a year, now with tax: as of October 2027, 23% of deposit interest is withheld, so a 12% rate pays 12% × 0.77 = **9.24%** after tax. What does 400,000 UAH become in 3 years, compounded yearly? Round to whole hryvnias. **Sofia:** What about a goal in euros, like studies abroad? **Grace:** Same rule: the safe part in the spending currency. Euros for a euro goal, hryvnias for a hryvnia one. The world fund is for goals far enough away to wait out a crash. **Ethan:** So one user could have three different pots in three currencies? **Grace:** Yes, one per goal. That's not messy; it's matched. > **Exercise:** Match each goal to the home that fits it best. ## Your turn: the onboarding answer > **Exercise:** A user in Kyiv sets a goal of 500,000 UAH in 3 years. Which onboarding message should Zapas show? **Ethan:** Fine. But write the explanation so a user gets it in ten seconds. **Alex Tutor:** Use the numbers from the ten scenarios. One goal, one currency, one clear suggestion. > **Exercise:** A user asks: "I have 400,000 UAH and need 500,000 UAH for a car in 3 years. Why shouldn't I just buy your dollar world fund?" Answer in 3–5 sentences with the numbers from the scenarios. > **Key ideas** > > - Count every goal in the currency it will be spent in. > - A dollar fund for a 3-year hryvnia goal carries market risk and currency risk at once: in 10 scenarios only 4 met 500,000, and the fund missed it in every crash case. > - Devaluation can lift a fund that did well; it can't rescue one that fell 30% just before the date. > - The safe part lives in the spending currency: as of October 2027, deposit interest taxed at 23% (fully guaranteed during martial law and 3 months after, then UAH 600,000 per person per bank); government bonds untaxed for individuals but not covered by the guarantee. Check the current rules. > - Compare after-tax: 12% on a deposit is 9.24% after tax. > **Educational, not advice** > > This lesson explains how investing works; it doesn't tell you what to buy. Rates and exchange rates here are round illustrations, not forecasts or current offers. Investments can fall, and you can get back less than you put in. Rules change: check the current rules or ask a licensed professional. More on the currency of a goal in personal finance: [Hryvnia or dollars: the currency of a goal](/courses/personal-finance/currency-of-a-goal). **Alex Tutor:** Next time: how a user in Ukraine can actually buy a global fund, and what to check before trusting anyone with the money. - Previous lesson: [Case: a beta cohort panic-sold](https://productovi.com/courses/long-term-investing/case-panic-cohort.md) - Next lesson: [Buying a global fund from Ukraine: domicile, broker, protection, FX](https://productovi.com/courses/long-term-investing/buying-from-ukraine.md) --- Productovi Learning. Free, no sign-up needed to read.