# Capstone: the launch memo and your own one-page plan

> Write the launch memo for the app and your own one-page investment plan, including how to draw money down later.

- Course: [Long-Term Investing: Index Funds, Risk and Your Own Behavior](https://productovi.com/courses/long-term-investing.md)
- Module: Launching for Ukraine, and the long run
- Lesson 32/32, ~39 min
- Source: https://productovi.com/courses/long-term-investing/capstone-launch-memo

## Launch week

**Alex Tutor:** November 2027: launch week at Zapas. Nine months ago you joined as the PM, and Ethan's draft said "Grow your money 12% a year". Today you write what Zapas actually promises.

**Ethan:** The board wants a one-page launch memo by Friday. What we promise, what we sell, what it costs, how we keep people invested, what's special for Ukraine.

**Grace:** And every line has a number, a range or a date, and a source in our own work since February. If a line has none of those, it's marketing; cut it.

![The launch memo: eight lines, one per month of work, from the promise as a range to the Ukrainian notes, each with a number, a range or a date.](https://productovi.com/courses/long-term-investing/diagrams/m8-l4-memo-map.png)

**Sofia:** Let me map each month to its line first.

> **Exercise:** Match each piece of the year's work to the line it gives the launch memo.

## The portfolios and their costs

**Grace:** The three portfolios go in with their bad news first. Growth, 80/20, had a worst real fall of 38.0% in our history. Someone with 10,000 dol. would have watched it drop to 6,200.

**Ethan:** Leading with a 38% fall? That's the opposite of a launch.

**Grace:** It's the opposite of a surprise. In the beta, the people who sold were the ones who hadn't expected the fall. A user who signs up knowing the worst year is a user who stays.

**Dataset (CSV):** [Stock and bond mixes over 40 synthetic years, real terms](https://productovi.com/datasets/long-term-investing/capstone-launch-memo/portfolios.csv)

For each mix from 0/100 to 100/0: average and compound real return, worst real year, maximum real drawdown, years to recover and under water, real value of 1,000 dol.

**Return and risk of each stock/bond mix, real terms, 40 synthetic years**

| Share of stocks, % | Compound real return a year, % | Worst real year, % | Maximum real drawdown, % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 0 | 1.7 | -12.7 | -22.8 |
| 20 | 2.7 | -15.1 | -25.2 |
| 40, Careful | 3.6 | -17.6 | -27.6 |
| 60, Balanced | 4.4 | -20 | -30 |
| 80, Growth | 5.2 | -24.3 | -38 |
| 100 | 5.9 | -31.8 | -48.2 |

*Zapas's three portfolios are named under their bars.*

> **Exercise:** Growth (80/20) had a maximum real drawdown of **−38.0%** in Zapas's synthetic history. A user has **10,000 dol.** in it at the peak. What is the lowest value they would have seen, in dol.?

**Ethan:** And costs? Investors will compare us to everyone.

**Grace:** All-in, as in June. Zapas World Stock costs 0.61% a year once spread, FX and the platform are added, not the headline fee alone.

> **Exercise:** Zapas World Stock costs **0.61% a year all-in** (fund level, platform fee, and spread and FX spread over 10 years). How much is that per year on a **20,000 dol.** holding, in dol.?

**Sofia:** Then the memo also needs a list of what we leave out.

**Grace:** Yes. The cuts say as much about us as the lines.

> **Exercise:** Which lines belong in Zapas's launch memo? Select all that apply.

**Ethan:** Good. Anything else before Friday?

**Grace:** One section most apps skip: what happens when users stop adding money and start living off it. Our first users are young, but the plan is for decades.

## The long run: drawing money down

**Sofia:** Our plans all end at the goal. What about users who will live off this money one day?

**Grace:** Then the order of returns starts to matter. A crash in the first years of withdrawals hurts far more than the same crash later, because you sell low to pay the bills. That's sequence risk.

**Grace:** Two levers help, and both cost something. A lower withdrawal rate, which means a smaller income. And a safe bucket of a few years' spending outside stocks, which earns less but means you don't sell in a crash.

> **Exercise:** A retiree has **200,000 dol.** and withdraws **3%** of it, **6,000 dol.** a year. In Zapas's synthetic history world stocks took **6 years** after the year-21 crash to regain their old peak (in nominal terms). How big a safe bucket, in dol., would cover withdrawals for that whole time without selling stocks?

> **Exercise:** Which line about drawing money down belongs in a one-page plan?

**Alex Tutor:** Now write the drawdown paragraph for your own plan. It's one paragraph; the trade-offs matter more than the exact numbers.

> **Exercise:** Write the "Drawing money down later" paragraph of your one-page plan (3–5 sentences): your starting withdrawal rate as a range or example, when you would cut it, how big a safe bucket you would keep and in what, and what each choice costs.

## The capstone

**Ethan:** Right. The memo, then your own plan. Same rules for both.

**Grace:** The memo is what Zapas promises its users. Your plan is what you promise yourself. If you wouldn't sign your own plan, don't put the memo in front of the board.

> **Exercise:** Write Zapas's one-page launch memo and your own one-page investment plan.

> **Key ideas**
>
> - A launch memo is a set of claims: each line needs a number, a range or a date, and a source.
> - Promise a range with a horizon (median 106,225, 1 in 10 below 57,544 for 150 dol./month over 25 years, synthetic), never a rate.
> - Show risk in money and time (Growth: 10,000 → 6,200, 8 years under water) and cost all-in (0.61%).
> - Keep the users' 6.0% apart from the fund's 8.7%, and report unfinished tests as unfinished.
> - Drawing money down is a trade-off: a modest rate you can cut and a safe bucket of a few years cost income and growth, and buy protection from sequence risk. No rate is "safe".
> - Your own plan follows the same rules as the memo.

> **Educational, not advice**
>
> This course explains how long-term investing works; it doesn't tell you what to buy. All Zapas and Tessaro data is synthetic. The story is set in 2027, but the Ukrainian rules it describes were checked in October 2026, and they change: check the current rules or ask a licensed professional. Investments can fall, and you can get back less than you put in.

**Alex Tutor:** That's the launch, and the end of the course. Keep your plan somewhere you'll find it on a bad day.

- Previous lesson: [Taxes, declaring income and wartime risks](https://productovi.com/courses/long-term-investing/taxes-and-war-risks.md)

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