# Case: the quarter's forecast review > Thirty open deals and an owner-feel forecast of 10.6 million: move the key accounts, flag the stale deals, weight the rest by pooled conversion and give Marta commit, best case and expected. - Course: [B2B Marketing and Sales: Win Your First Company Customers](https://productovi.com/courses/b2b-marketing-and-sales.md) - Module: The pipeline - Lesson 12/32, ~40 min - Source: https://productovi.com/courses/b2b-marketing-and-sales/quarter-forecast-review-case ## Ten million on Leo's sheet **Alex Tutor:** You're still at Klasna for Teams, now with buyer-defined stages, four qualifying questions and a bottom-up method. Today is the quarter's review: 5 October, thirty open deals. **Marta:** Leo's sheet says 10.6 million for the fourth quarter, from the owners' own probabilities. I present on Friday. I want commit, best case and expected, and a list of deals to drop, move or call. **Sofia:** Where do I start? **Alex Tutor:** With the deals expected to close October to December. Then key accounts one by one, then the stale deals, then weight what's left by the stage history. **Dataset (CSV):** [Klasna for Teams: open deals on 5 October 2026](https://productovi.com/datasets/b2b-marketing-and-sales/quarter-forecast-review-case/klasna-teams-pipeline-q4-2026.csv) Thirty open deals. Value is the annual contract value at the list price (lessons a month × 800 UAH × 12). Stages: discovery, qualified, proposal, contract, defined by what the buyer did. - `deal_id`: Deal id - `account`: Company - `type`: new, renewal, or expansion of a current client - `owner`: Who owns the deal: marta, leo, or you - `stage`: Current stage - `value_uah`: Annual contract value, UAH - `owner_probability_pct`: The owner's own estimate of the chance to win, % - `expected_close`: Month the owner expects it to sign - `close_date_moves`: How many times the expected close date has moved - `days_in_stage`: Days since the deal entered its current stage - `days_since_buyer_activity`: Days since the buyer last did something: replied, booked, sent a document - `next_step_agreed`: Whether a dated next step is agreed with the buyer **Dataset (CSV):** [Stage history: new deals started 2025-Q3 to 2026-Q2](https://productovi.com/datasets/b2b-marketing-and-sales/quarter-forecast-review-case/klasna-teams-stage-history.csv) For new deals that started in each quarter (outcomes known): how many reached each stage and how many of them were won. - `quarter`: Quarter the deals started - `stage`: Stage - `deals_reached`: Deals that reached this stage - `deals_won`: Of the deals that started that quarter, how many were won **Alex Tutor:** First, see where Leo's number comes from. Take the deals closing in the quarter and look at the three biggest names. > **Exercise:** How much of the owners' forecast for the quarter (value × owner probability, deals closing October–December) comes from **Veloria, Cobalt and Orchid** together? In UAH. ## Key accounts and stale deals **Sofia:** Over six of the 10.6 million is three key accounts. **Marta:** Veloria wants a paid pilot first and a start early next year. Cobalt is under contract with its school until March. Orchid is in discovery; their head office is still mapping the need. **Alex Tutor:** So all three move to 2027, each with a written reason. That's the biggest correction, and it comes from the buyers' calendars, not from pessimism. **Alex Tutor:** Next, the flag: more than 30 days since the buyer last acted, or a close date moved twice. Check every deal in the quarter, including the ones at high probability. **Sofia:** Even renewals? > **Exercise:** Which of these deals does the flag catch? Select all that apply. ## What's still alive **Sofia:** Seven stale deals, 2.3 million of Leo's number. The 95% one has the worst signals in the file. **Marta:** And d06 is Leo's renewal with the Dnipro IT firm, silent for 38 days. That's not base; that's a phone call this week. **Alex Tutor:** Now commit: the live renewal that is ready to sign plus live new deals at the contract stage, at full value. Key accounts and stale deals stay out. **Marta:** The Lviv studio's renewal is with their accountant. That one I'd bet on. **Alex Tutor:** Before the commit sum: which deal is the base? > **Exercise:** Which of these belongs in the **base** for the fourth quarter? > **Exercise:** What is the **commit** for the quarter: live (not stale, not key-account) renewals and new deals at the contract stage, closing October–December, at full value? In UAH. ## Weighting the rest **Marta:** And the expected number? **Alex Tutor:** The base, the Lviv renewal, plus every other live deal in the quarter times the pooled conversion of its stage. Pooled from the history file, not averaged. **Sofia:** Pooled: discovery 5 of 21, qualified 5 of 16, proposal 5 of 13, contract 5 of 7. **Alex Tutor:** Check one of those rates yourself. > **Exercise:** From the stage history, what is Teams' **pooled** conversion at the discovery stage (deals won ÷ deals that reached discovery, all four quarters)? In %. **Alex Tutor:** Fifteen live deals besides the renewal, the studio's expansion included: 3,484,800 of value. Weight each one by its stage. > **Exercise:** Besides the Lviv studio's renewal (d04, the base), fifteen live deals close October–December: not key accounts (Veloria, Cobalt, Orchid) and not flagged (d06, d09, d13, d15, d19, d22, d25), worth 3,484,800 UAH in all, the studio's expansion d05 included. What is their weighted value, each × the pooled conversion of its stage? In UAH. **Marta:** And the top of the range? > **Exercise:** Commit is 1,008,000 UAH. What is the **best case**: commit plus the live (not flagged, not key-account) proposal-stage deals closing October–December, at full value? In UAH. ## Signed is not paid **Marta:** So: commit about 1 million, expected 1.59, best case 1.94 with the live proposals. Against Leo's 10.6. **Alex Tutor:** And the averaged rates would have given 1.80 million expected, 211,000 too high. Pooled it is. **Marta:** One more thing for Leo: signed isn't paid. Teams invoices quarterly, with 30 to 60 days to pay. **Alex Tutor:** Right: this forecasts contracts, not cash. The lesson «Receivables and payment terms» in the finance course shows how terms move the cash. And stage conversion is a funnel: «Reading a funnel without fooling yourself» in the product analytics course covers the same traps. **Alex Tutor:** So what does commit mean for the bank account? > **Exercise:** **True or false:** a commit of 1,008,000 UAH means Teams will receive about 1,008,000 UAH in cash this quarter. > **Exercise:** Write the lines for Leo on the three key accounts (2–4 sentences): why Veloria, Cobalt and Orchid are out of this quarter, where they go, and what would bring each one closer. What you know: Veloria wants a paid pilot and a start early in 2027, Cobalt's contract with its current school runs to March, and Orchid's head office is still mapping the need. **Sofia:** What do I drop, and what do I keep? **Alex Tutor:** Each stale deal gets one honest question this week; no answer means lost, with a reason. Call the silent renewal. Keep live deals at their pooled weight. **Marta:** And who tells Leo that half his deals have gone quiet? **Alex Tutor:** The memo does, with the date of each buyer's last action. Facts, not blame. > **Exercise:** Write Marta the forecast memo for Friday's review. > **Key ideas** > > - Start a forecast review with the deals in the quarter and see what carries the number: here three key accounts were 57.88% of the owners' forecast. > - Move key accounts by the buyer's calendar, each with a written reason. > - Flag deals by buyer silence and moved close dates, whatever probability they carry; a 95% deal can be the stalest. > - Commit and best case are full-value categories; expected weights live deals by pooled stage conversion. > - Averaged conversion overstates when quarters differ in size; pool the counts. > - A sales forecast counts contracts; cash follows on the payment terms. **Alex Tutor:** The pipeline now tells the truth. The next module is about filling it: building demand in a long sale. - Previous lesson: [Forecasting bottom-up: key accounts, renewals, new business](https://productovi.com/courses/b2b-marketing-and-sales/forecasting-bottom-up.md) - Next lesson: [Content a committee uses: one asset per role and stage](https://productovi.com/courses/b2b-marketing-and-sales/content-a-committee-uses.md) --- Productovi Learning. Free, no sign-up needed to read.