# Case: a quarter's budget and what really moved > Leads more than doubled this autumn. Split the credit between marketing and the baseline, channel by channel, and recommend where next quarter's 325,000 UAH should go. - Course: [B2B Marketing and Sales: Win Your First Company Customers](https://productovi.com/courses/b2b-marketing-and-sales.md) - Module: Building demand in a long sale - Lesson 16/32, ~36 min - Source: https://productovi.com/courses/b2b-marketing-and-sales/quarter-budget-case ## Leads doubled **Alex Tutor:** It's the end of November. Klasna for Teams has finished its autumn quarter, the first with real campaigns, and the next quarter's budget is due. **Marta:** September to November we spent 325,000 UAH: an October conference and two HR breakfasts, outbound, a referral partner from October, and paid promotion of our content. **Leo:** Leads went from 85 last autumn to 192. More than double! Let's double the budget too. **Alex Tutor:** Before anyone doubles anything: leads are the easiest number to inflate. We judge channels by **opportunities**, deals that passed qualification, and only by those above the baseline. **Alex Tutor:** Start with the yardstick itself. > **Exercise:** Leads went from 85 to 192. Why judge Klasna's channels by qualified **opportunities** above the baseline instead? **Alex Tutor:** The campaigns ran only in Kyiv and Lviv. The other cities got none, only referrals and our unpromoted articles. That is our control. **Dataset (CSV):** [Klasna for Teams: leads, opportunities and spend, autumn 2025 vs 2026](https://productovi.com/datasets/b2b-marketing-and-sales/quarter-budget-case/teams-demand-autumn-2026.csv) September–November, by month, region and channel, with the same months of 2025 side by side. Campaigns ran only in kyiv_lviv; other_cities had none and serve as the control. Events, outbound and the partner did not exist in 2025. Spend in UAH. - `month`: sep, oct or nov (the same month in both years) - `region`: kyiv_lviv: campaigns ran; other_cities: no campaign (the control) - `channel`: events, referrals, content, outbound or partner - `leads_2025`: New leads in that month of 2025 - `leads_2026`: New leads in that month of 2026 - `opportunities_2025`: Leads that became qualified opportunities, 2025 - `opportunities_2026`: Leads that became qualified opportunities, 2026 - `spend_2026_uah`: Marketing spend in that month of 2026, UAH **Sofia:** Then the control first: how much did the other cities grow with no campaign at all? > **Exercise:** Use the dataset. By how many percent did **opportunities** in **other_cities** (the control) grow from autumn 2025 to autumn 2026? ## Above the baseline **Alex Tutor:** Now Kyiv and Lviv. Without campaigns they would probably have grown like the control. Apply the 20% to last autumn and compare. **Sofia:** Kyiv and Lviv had 15 opportunities last autumn and 31 now. Baseline 15 × 1.2 = 18. **Marta:** And the value of an opportunity: our history says one in five is won, and a won client takes about 480 lessons in its first year. That's my planning assumption, not a promise. **Alex Tutor:** So one opportunity is worth 0.2 × 480 = 96 lessons, times 339 UAH: 32,544 UAH of expected contribution. Rough, but the same yardstick for every channel. > **Exercise:** How many opportunities in **kyiv_lviv** can be credited to the autumn campaigns, above a baseline of last autumn adjusted by the control group's growth (other cities: **+20%**)? **Alex Tutor:** Before channel by channel, put a price on one opportunity. > **Exercise:** Marta's planning assumption: **1 in 5** opportunities is won, a won client takes **480** lessons in its first year, and contribution is **339 UAH** a lesson. What is one opportunity worth in expected contribution, in UAH? ## Channel by channel **Marta:** The conference was my favorite: 60 leads, the most of any channel. **Alex Tutor:** And 3 opportunities, a 5% conversion. Events didn't exist last year, so all 3 count as extra: 3 × 32,544 = 97,632 UAH against 180,000 spent. **Sofia:** Most of those 60 were students, other schools and people collecting free pens. **Alex Tutor:** Lead counts reward crowds. Opportunities above the baseline reward channels that reach buyers. Now compute the events ROMI. > **Exercise:** Events: **3** extra opportunities at **32,544 UAH** each, **180,000 UAH** spent. What is the events ROMI, in percent? (A loss is a negative number.) **Alex Tutor:** Now the smallest channel, the partner. > **Exercise:** The referral partner (from October): **3** extra opportunities at **32,544 UAH** each, **40,000 UAH** spent. What is the partner's ROMI, in percent? ## Referrals and content **Sofia:** Referrals went from 10 to 12 opportunities in Kyiv and Lviv. Exactly 20%, like the control. **Alex Tutor:** So zero credit to marketing, and nothing spent: that growth would have come anyway. Content went from 5 to 7, baseline 6: one extra opportunity for 45,000 UAH of paid promotion. **Marta:** So we cut content? **Alex Tutor:** Cut the paid promotion of general articles. But remember what content is for: the cost sheet and the data note help deals close. This table counts new opportunities, not that. **Alex Tutor:** Measure those assets by use in live deals instead. And treat every channel's number with care: 3 or 6 opportunities can swing on one deal. > **Exercise:** Which conclusions does the autumn data support? Choose all that apply. (One opportunity = 32,544 UAH of expected contribution.) ## An answer for Leo **Leo:** Fine, but leads doubled. Why not double the budget and get double again? **Alex Tutor:** Because most of that doubling isn't marketing's, and the money that did work sits in two small channels. Doubling events doubles a loss. **Marta:** And outbound can't simply double either. It grows only as fast as we find the right companies and people, lawfully. **Sofia:** So the answer for Leo: the quarter earned something, less than it looks, and the next one should move money, not add it. **Alex Tutor:** Test Leo's logic first: true or false? > **Exercise:** **True or false:** the autumn quarter earned about 98,000 UAH after its 325,000 UAH spend, so doubling every line of the budget should roughly double that result. > **Exercise:** Leo says: "Leads more than doubled, so let's double the budget." The facts: the control cities grew **20%** with no campaign; Kyiv and Lviv went from **15** to **31** opportunities; one opportunity is worth **32,544 UAH**; the quarter cost **325,000 UAH**. Reply in **3–4 sentences**, using the numbers: the control group, opportunities above the baseline, the quarter's result after spend, and what that means for the budget. ## Your memo: next quarter **Marta:** Next quarter, December to February, I have 325,000 UAH again. Give me a one-page memo: what really moved, and where the money goes. **Alex Tutor:** Split the credit channel by channel, then the budget. Every shift should follow from a number, and say what you're unsure of. **Sofia:** And how we'll measure next quarter better than this one? **Alex Tutor:** Yes: choose the control cities before you start, and keep the opportunity value visible as an assumption. > **Exercise:** Write Marta a one-page memo: what really moved this autumn, and how to spend next quarter's 325,000 UAH. > **Key ideas** > > - A doubling of leads says little. Judge channels by **opportunities above the baseline**, valued at the margin they are expected to bring. > - The control group shows the trend: here +20% with no campaign, so 13 of the opportunities in Kyiv and Lviv are the campaigns', not 16 or 31. > - Channels with the most leads can lose money (events); small channels can carry the result (outbound, partner). > - Content that helps committees decide is measured by use in live deals, not by new opportunities. Cut paid promotion of general articles first. > - Small numbers swing on one deal: move money step by step and plan the next quarter's control in advance. **Alex Tutor:** Keep this table. Next quarter, put its new numbers next to these and see whether the shifts held. - Previous lesson: [Measuring marketing with a baseline](https://productovi.com/courses/b2b-marketing-and-sales/measuring-with-a-baseline.md) - Next lesson: [The discovery call: ask before you pitch](https://productovi.com/courses/b2b-marketing-and-sales/the-discovery-call.md) --- Productovi Learning. Free, no sign-up needed to read.